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Siliveru Anil Kumar
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#Educational Updates
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![Educational Updates - Probability Part 10: bages theorem Concept nribosilitidted Bages theorem helps to find the of an event based information about conditions to the event prior on Formula P(B|A)x P(A) P(AIB) P(B) P(AIB) probobility of A given 8 probability of B given P(BIA) A > Understanding : Reverse probabilitg using known data. thinking Bayes >8 A A B reverse Example factory has: Machine A ~ 60% production] A production Machine B ->40% Defective rate: A 2% , B > 5% > q defective item came from Machine A Find probability that P(B) Step 1: P(A) = 0.6 Defective =0.4 P(D|B) = 0.05 P(D|A) = 0.02 6 > A 0.2 Defective Step 2: P(D) (0.6 x 0.02)+ (0.4x0.05) Start 0.012 + 0.02 0.032 Defective 0.47 05 B 0.02*0.6 0.012 Step 3: P(AID) 0.375 0.2 0.032 0.032 Defective Quick exam trick or "already happened" Use Bayes when question says given that Common mistakes confusing P(AIB) and P(BIA) find P(B) first incorrect denominator step skipping total probability using probability new informatior . Bayes theorem helps update EduSphere Academy Page 10 Probability Part 10: bages theorem Concept nribosilitidted Bages theorem helps to find the of an event based information about conditions to the event prior on Formula P(B|A)x P(A) P(AIB) P(B) P(AIB) probobility of A given 8 probability of B given P(BIA) A > Understanding : Reverse probabilitg using known data. thinking Bayes >8 A A B reverse Example factory has: Machine A ~ 60% production] A production Machine B ->40% Defective rate: A 2% , B > 5% > q defective item came from Machine A Find probability that P(B) Step 1: P(A) = 0.6 Defective =0.4 P(D|B) = 0.05 P(D|A) = 0.02 6 > A 0.2 Defective Step 2: P(D) (0.6 x 0.02)+ (0.4x0.05) Start 0.012 + 0.02 0.032 Defective 0.47 05 B 0.02*0.6 0.012 Step 3: P(AID) 0.375 0.2 0.032 0.032 Defective Quick exam trick or "already happened" Use Bayes when question says given that Common mistakes confusing P(AIB) and P(BIA) find P(B) first incorrect denominator step skipping total probability using probability new informatior . Bayes theorem helps update EduSphere Academy Page 10 - ShareChat](https://cdn4.sharechat.com/bd5223f_s1w/compressed_gm_40_img_353541_ce9f814_1774038351983_sc.jpg?tenant=sc&referrer=pwa-sharechat-service&f=983_sc.jpg "Educational Updates - Probability Part 10: bages theorem Concept nribosilitidted Bages theorem helps to find the of an event based information about conditions to the event prior on Formula P(B|A)x P(A) P(AIB) P(B) P(AIB) probobility of A given 8 probability of B given P(BIA) A > Understanding : Reverse probabilitg using known data. thinking Bayes >8 A A B reverse Example factory has: Machine A ~ 60% production] A production Machine B ->40% Defective rate: A 2% , B > 5% > q defective item came from Machine A Find probability that P(B) Step 1: P(A) = 0.6 Defective =0.4 P(D|B) = 0.05 P(D|A) = 0.02 6 > A 0.2 Defective Step 2: P(D) (0.6 x 0.02)+ (0.4x0.05) Start 0.012 + 0.02 0.032 Defective 0.47 05 B 0.02*0.6 0.012 Step 3: P(AID) 0.375 0.2 0.032 0.032 Defective Quick exam trick or \"already happened\" Use Bayes when question says given that Common mistakes confusing P(AIB) and P(BIA) find P(B) first incorrect denominator step skipping total probability using probability new informatior . Bayes theorem helps update EduSphere Academy Page 10 Probability Part 10: bages theorem Concept nribosilitidted Bages theorem helps to find the of an event based information about conditions to the event prior on Formula P(B|A)x P(A) P(AIB) P(B) P(AIB) probobility of A given 8 probability of B given P(BIA) A > Understanding : Reverse probabilitg using known data. thinking Bayes >8 A A B reverse Example factory has: Machine A ~ 60% production] A production Machine B ->40% Defective rate: A 2% , B > 5% > q defective item came from Machine A Find probability that P(B) Step 1: P(A) = 0.6 Defective =0.4 P(D|B) = 0.05 P(D|A) = 0.02 6 > A 0.2 Defective Step 2: P(D) (0.6 x 0.02)+ (0.4x0.05) Start 0.012 + 0.02 0.032 Defective 0.47 05 B 0.02*0.6 0.012 Step 3: P(AID) 0.375 0.2 0.032 0.032 Defective Quick exam trick or \"already happened\" Use Bayes when question says given that Common mistakes confusing P(AIB) and P(BIA) find P(B) first incorrect denominator step skipping total probability using probability new informatior . Bayes theorem helps update EduSphere Academy Page 10 - ShareChat")