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The Triangle of Power: India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia
(How a pact of convenience between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may end up strengthening India’s hand in South Asia.)
In international politics, events that appear dangerous at first glance often turn out to have hidden advantages. The recent Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is one such example. Under this pact, both countries have pledged that any act of aggression against one will be treated as an act against both. At first, it may seem troubling for India, since Pakistan is India’s neighbor and a long-time rival. Yet, a closer look shows that this agreement can actually work in India’s favor.
Why did this agreement happen?
To understand the pact, we need to see the reasons behind it. Saudi Arabia has for decades relied on the United States for its security. However, in recent years, a sense of distrust has grown. One major turning point came after Israel’s attack on Doha, Qatar, which created fresh tensions in the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia realized that it could not always depend on the US to defend its interests.
In such a situation, Pakistan appeared as a natural partner. Pakistan is the only Islamic country that possesses nuclear weapons. For Saudi Arabia, this partnership offers the comfort of “nuclear protection.” Pakistan, on the other hand, gains valuable financial support from the wealthy Saudi state. In simple words, it is a marriage of convenience — Saudi Arabia gets defense assurance, and Pakistan gets money.
What does the wording mean?
The heart of the agreement lies in the phrase: “both countries have committed to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both.” The key question here is: who is the likely aggressor? History shows that India has never been an aggressor. India has always fought defensive wars, whether in 1947, 1965, 1971, or even during the Kargil conflict of 1999. India does not start wars. Therefore, the real risk of “aggression” comes from Pakistan’s side, not India’s.
This creates an interesting situation. If Pakistan takes unilateral action against India, Saudi Arabia will automatically be placed in a very delicate position. It cannot afford to support reckless military adventures, especially against a major power like India. This means that the pact indirectly places responsibility on Saudi Arabia to restrain Pakistan and prevent any dangerous escalation.
Saudi Arabia’s historic ties with India
India and Saudi Arabia have historically enjoyed cordial relations, built not just on trade but also on cultural and religious connections. A strong example comes from the early 20th century. The Nizam of Hyderabad, Mir Osman Ali Khan, generously financed the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah between 1911 and 1954. This was a period when Saudi Arabia had not yet discovered its oil wealth. The Nizam became the largest benefactor of the holy sites, a fact that Saudi King Saud bin Abdulaziz Al Saud publicly acknowledged during his 1955 visit to Hyderabad.
India also has the world’s third largest Muslim population, which naturally keeps India and Saudi Arabia linked. Over the years, thousands of Indian workers have migrated to Saudi Arabia, contributing to its economy. These deep connections make it very unlikely that Saudi Arabia would side with Pakistan in any aggression against India.
Why this is good for India
From India’s perspective, the SMDA reduces the chances of sudden conflict. Instead of making Pakistan stronger, it ties Pakistan’s hands. Any aggressive step taken by Pakistan will also draw Saudi Arabia into the picture. But Saudi Arabia, being a cautious and pragmatic country, would never want to be dragged into a war with India. Therefore, the pact indirectly forces Pakistan to think twice before provoking India.
It also helps in maintaining regional stability. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers. Any miscalculation could lead to catastrophic results. By linking Pakistan’s actions to Saudi Arabia’s responsibility, the SMDA creates an extra layer of control.
Lessons from other conflicts
The world has already seen how security promises can fail in practice. The Ukraine crisis is a painful example. Despite promises from Europe and NATO, Ukraine was left largely to fight on its own when Russia invaded. If wealthy, nuclear-armed European nations could not fully protect Ukraine, it is unrealistic to believe that Pakistan — an economically struggling country — could guarantee protection to Saudi Arabia. This shows the limits of such alliances.
Final Thoughts
The Pak–Saudi Security Pact is not a threat to India. On the contrary, it is a development that can bring more stability to the region. Saudi Arabia has every reason to maintain friendly ties with India — economic, cultural, and historical. The pact places Saudi Arabia in a position where it must restrain Pakistan from reckless moves.
In international politics, religious identity is not enough to unite countries. Geopolitical interests and economic realities matter far more. Pakistan lacks the strength to act as a reliable protector, and Saudi Arabia knows this well. For India, this means one thing: greater security and stability in South Asia.
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